South Carolina Primary Predictions
I wish I would have posted my predictions in Iowa and New Hampshire, because I picked 8 of the top ten spots correctly in the early voting states…but those were easy. Now we head South, and it always gets interesting down South. I really felt Newt would run really well in the South, and especially South Carolina. Now that he’s cried about it he’s got a chance to take a bite out of Romney-bot. I’ve got Newt winning South Carolina with 34% of th vote to Romney’s 27% – but that’s not even my surprise pick.
Stephen Colbert, or Herman Cain, I don’t know which is which anymore, will have an impact on this race. With Perry out, I see Colbert/Cain running in the top five with about 8% of the vote, nipping at Santorum’s slimy ass who should finish with 10% or so. Ron Paul will pull much of the undecided vote but not enough to pull away from Santorum, which makes for a possible three-way tie for third if Herman Cain has a pocket full of “Definitely Not Coordinating with Stephen Colbert Super PAC” cash. Colbert never revealed how much money he actually has.
Let’s recap:
- Newt Gingrich (34%)
- Mitt Romney (27%)
- Ron Paul (11%)
- Rick Santorum (10%)
- Herman Cain (8%)
I wish I could say Stephen Colbert/Herman Cain is going to finish third, but I just don’t see it happening. My ceiling is 8%, but if more of the undecided voters float to Romney, or even to Cain, there’s a chance we could see some fireworks. Hell, we’re already getting fireworks and it’s only January. The only two things that matter in South Carolina is: 1) can Newt give Romney a good enough beating to carry into Florida, and 2) the mockery Stephen Colbert made of the entire Super PAC system, and the entire campaign finance system for that matter. And, frankly, the latter is much more important than the beating Newt may or may not put on Romney-bot.
